MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101738Z - 101845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   OH VALLEY.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT...SHROUDED IN CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS...IS MIGRATING ACROSS ECNTRL IL.  THIS FEATURE IS LONG-LIVED
   AND IS WELL HANDLED MY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY
   ALIGNED ALONG THE OH RIVER...PARALLEL TO MEAN DEEP-LAYER FLOW.  OVER
   THE LAST FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF
   THIS CONVECTION AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
   ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD DEBRIS.  OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   SUGGEST AN UPWARD EVOLVING COMPLEX OF TSTMS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS
   THE SRN OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP-LAYER FLOW
   FAVORS ORGANIZED LINE STRUCTURES AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37398795 38028620 38888560 39078397 37808344 36828722
               37398795