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Mesoscale Discussion 669 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...N-CNTRL/NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...
VALID 212237Z - 212330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
ACROSS WW 188...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL ACROSS NWRN ROSEBUD
COUNTY IN MT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS NEAR
SHERIDAN COUNTY WY INTO SERN MT.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET
NOSING INTO ERN MT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED COLD FRONT. THE DOMINANT STORM IS CURRENTLY A LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELL NE OF BILLINGS...MOVING ACROSS NWRN ROSEBUD COUNTY
MT...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A BROAD AREA OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL OR
ORGANIZED CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODES WITH BACKED SELY FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS OBSERVED. AN ACCOMPANYING SVR
THREAT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING N-NEWD ACROSS NERN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.
ACROSS S-CNTRL MT INTO FAR N-CNTRL WY...AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE DRYLINE AND SYNOPTIC SFC LOW CENTERED
JUST N OF KSHR. A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED TSTMS COULD EVOLVE OUT OF
THIS AREA AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION FARTHER N...AND MAY AFFECT SERN PORTIONS OF WW 188 WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING LARGE-HAIL/WIND THREAT POSSIBLE.
..ROGERS.. 05/21/2016
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44950569 44140643 44080693 44670780 45370842 45670865
46080900 47010906 47600888 49000823 49000769 49000736
49000650 49000637 49000611 48550580 48220580 44950569
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