MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252040Z - 252315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF SWRN TX EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST OF DRYLINE
   FROM SWRN THROUGH NWRN TX WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING NORTH OF
   HIGH CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW REGIME HAS
   BOOSTED SFC TEMPERATURES TO 90F. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE
   REMAINS LIMITED...INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED.
   INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG DRYLINE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...HIGH
   BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SPREAD EWD AND
   INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL
   WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL
   SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30160173 31150070 32019992 32159933 31659891 30519914
               28960030 29550109 30160173