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Mesoscale Discussion 893
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NERN NM AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131718Z - 131915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STORMS MOVING
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS
   ATTM...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOTED PER
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.  WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING REMNANTS
   OF AN ERODING LOW-CLOUD DECK E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OBS
   REVEALING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...CAPE REMAINS
   SUB-OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE RISK ATTM.

   WITH THAT SAID...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN
   CO/NWRN NM AS THE UPPER TROUGH -- CENTERED OVER UT/AZ -- ADVANCES. 
   WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY
   YIELDING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SPREADING ENEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

   BACKGROUND SHEAR -- THOUGH MODEST ATTM -- WILL ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /40 TO 60
   KT/ SPREADS ATOP PERSISTENT SELYS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE STORM MODE
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ROTATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY CELLULAR
   CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND SOME
   TORNADO POTENTIAL.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALSO SEEMS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND RISK
   SPREADING ACROSS ERN CO TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE/WRN KS/THE TX AND
   OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   DESTABILIZATION OF THE HIGH-PLAINS AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CU FIELD
   EVOLUTION...WITH AN EYE TOWARD WW ISSUANCE ROUGHLY ANTICIPATED IN
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

   ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40420516 40860462 41220317 40770250 39010231 37030243
               36210360 36580510 37550508 38550497 39950553 40420516 

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