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Mesoscale Discussion 1375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231949Z - 232145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1945Z...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A
   WWD/SWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS...WITH
   MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/WRN AR. WHILE THIS
   ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM THE MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES...SOME ENHANCEMENT
   TO NLY/NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOTED IN THE NQA VWP...LIKELY RELATED
   IN PART TO AN MCV CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. THE COMBINATION OF A
   WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD
   OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND NRN/CNTRL MS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   CLUSTERS THAT CAN DEVELOP FROM CELL MERGERS. 

   FURTHER WEST ACROSS WRN AR...FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE LESS
   WELL-DEFINED...BUT TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 100 F IN COMBINATION
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WET
   MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS IN THIS REGION. 

   AT THIS TIME...THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32499065 32719222 32999334 33469386 33939433 34459438
               35229338 35629252 35879189 35849128 35239123 34519116
               33919095 33549036 33238962 33048940 32538944 32428980
               32499065 

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