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Mesoscale Discussion 1377
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...SRN ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...

   VALID 232043Z - 232215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 411. SOME
   SEVERE RISK WILL EXTEND OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF ERN
   NY...MA...AND SRN MAINE...BUT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN AND NEAR WW 411...WITH SOME DAMAGING
   WIND REPORTS NOTED OVER NRN NY/VT EARLIER. A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
   INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A DAMAGING
   WIND RISK GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. 

   THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXTEND TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
   ACROSS ERN NY...SRN VT/NH...MA...AND SRN ME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
   TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO MIXING OF SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
   THE MID-UPPER 50S F...AND SOME DIFLUENCE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
   WIND FIELD...WHICH WILL NOT FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION
   VERY FAR SOUTH OF WW 411. AS A RESULT...DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   RISK WILL PERSIST AND A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 411 INTO FAR SRN NH
   MAY BE APPROPRIATE.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43617499 44327456 44517379 44527288 44407195 44227128
               44037034 43727008 43197052 42347075 42257179 42297239
               42297290 42327342 42377409 42727444 43207497 43617499 

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