MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...ERN SD...WRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232054Z - 232330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR RISK THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE SVR RISK...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER/DESTABILIZE ACROSS
   THE REGION. HOWEVER...AIR-MASS RECOVERY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MN/SERN
   ND IS STILL IN EARLY PHASES...WITH WAVE/BILLOW CLOUDS DETECTED BY
   VIS IMAGERY IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE
   ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE NRN PLAINS FROM SW TO NE...THOUGH
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THIS
   ASCENT...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT SOME INCREASE IN
   TSTMS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED
   WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN ND.

   THE ABR 19Z RAOB INDICATES AMPLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH ONLY MODEST
   REMAINING INHIBITION -- REFLECTING THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY-PERTURBED
   AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION THAT A SVR RISK MAY
   INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AIDED
   BY 30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING SVR HAIL/WIND.
   HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL DRYING...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
   EARLY STAGES OF AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN SOME AREAS DETRACT CONFIDENCE
   IN SPECIFYING DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT CONVECTIVE/SVR EVOLUTION
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS ATTM. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   44389713 45409829 47119822 47749737 47609612 47039546
               45289508 44719539 44389713