MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN/CNTRL WI...AND NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272215Z - 272345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW 40 W EAU IN WRN WI...WITH
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SERN MN INTO NRN IA.
   A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF
   WRN/CNTRL WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WAS
   ANALYZED FROM SERN WI NWWD TO 40 E EAU. A COMPACT MCV WAS NOTED ON
   RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS E-CNTRL MN...WHICH IS
   ENCOURAGING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG THE COLD/WARM
   FRONTS...AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL WI.

   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS
   SUGGESTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
   AREA. A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO MID-LEVEL WINDS /AROUND 25-30 KT/
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A FEW MULTICELLS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN WI. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS. THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE ONGOING MARGINAL
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH.

   ..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43099105 42759290 42869451 43229452 44839265 45329123
               45248999 45018908 44638929 43958994 43099105