MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA...SW ARK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132038Z - 132245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG A WEAK
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA/SOUTHWEST AR. A
   LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO GLANCE THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING
   IN A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE
   WEAK...MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING
   IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. 

   THE HAIL RISK WILL LARGELY BE MITIGATED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT MODERATE MLCAPE OF
   1500-2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING
   SEVERE LIMITS. THE SEVERE WIND RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS WHERE
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90F MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOCALIZED WET
   MICROBURSTS.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 10/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31619533 32069546 32769514 33289407 33369308 33139266
               32599292 32139338 31539484 31619533