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Mesoscale Discussion 1787
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL REGIONS OF WRN WASHINGTON/NWRN OREGON

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141529Z - 141730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO/WATERSPOUT REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-17Z...BUT THE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING COASTAL
   NWRN WA AND VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 1530Z. AHEAD OF THIS
   SYSTEM...SEVERAL ROTATING CELLS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS
   MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY WEAKENING INLAND WITHIN A MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE NWRN
   ORE/WRN WA COAST...WHICH HAS EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE
   COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. WITH GREATER THAN 50 KTS OF FLOW JUST
   ABOVE THE SURFACE PER LOCAL VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM FCST
   SOUNDINGS...SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...BUT GRADUALLY
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE THIS THREAT WITH
   TIME. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY VERY
   WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..DEAN/DARROW.. 10/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

   LAT...LON   45092397 45402451 46792461 47802487 48352477 48302376
               47902334 46912329 45802320 45292318 45032337 45092397 

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Page last modified: October 14, 2016
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