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Mesoscale Discussion 1814
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT FRI NOV 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEW MEXICO AND THE EL PASO AREA OF SOUTHWEST
   TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041937Z - 042130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
   SUPERCELLS... APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW
   MEXICO INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY 21-23Z.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...PRIMARILY DUE TO
   SIZE OF AREA IMPACTED AND COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED...PORTIONS OF
   THE GREATER EL PASO METROPOLITAN AREA COULD BE AFFECTED...AND TRENDS
   WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS...GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...INTO THE
   VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. 
   INHIBITION ALSO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ERODING...AS THE CLOSED
   MID-LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS MAY LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...IF NOT A BIT
   BEFORE.

   ALTHOUGH PEAK CAPE SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG BENEATH 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY IS CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST
   ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME SIZABLE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN
   STORMS THAT COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER EL PASO
   METROPOLITAN AREA.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 11/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31040796 31250841 31710860 32320911 33120873 32590766
               31800623 31100623 30390726 30670767 31040796 

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Page last modified: November 04, 2016
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