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Mesoscale Discussion 351
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Areas affected...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281723Z - 281830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue to develop across west Texas
   over the next hour. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
   primary threats. WW issuance will likely be needed by 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows 1001 mb low over far
   southeastern New Mexico with a corridor of low-level moisture
   extending northward across west-central Texas to near the vicinity
   of Lubbock. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the upper
   50s and lower 60s F and the RAP is analyzing moderate instability
   with MLCAPE values from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, water vapor
   imagery shows a band of strong large-scale ascent associated with an
   upper-level low in the Desert Southwest. This band of ascent will
   move across west Texas over the next few hours providing support for
   strong to severe thunderstorm development. The instability combined
   with strong deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear near 55 kt on the
   Lubbock WSR-88D-VWP will be favorable for storm rotation with
   isolated large hail and possibly supercell development. The latest
   HRRR develops a band of surface-based storms near Lubbock and moves
   this convection northward eventually reaching the southern Texas
   Panhandle later this afternoon. This is the corridor where WW
   issuance is likely.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/28/2017


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32030204 32380067 32790011 33549995 33929999 34340030
               34630070 34760113 34830162 34780219 34510258 34100285
               33470300 32640277 32030204 

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