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Mesoscale Discussion 355
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0355
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281944Z - 282215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing severe thunderstorms as well as new development
   are expected to spread across much of northwestern Texas and into
   southwestern Oklahoma through evening, with a threat of tornadoes,
   wind and hail. A new tornado watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells currently extends from just
   east of Lubbock toward Midland along a dryline. To the east into the
   Abilene area, visible satellite shows deepening boundary layer
   cumulus where heating is occurring. Just to the north, stable billow
   clouds were noted which also corresponds to an area of
   backed/easterly surface winds.

   Models continue to suggest a large cluster of cells developing ahead
   of the western line of storms by about 21Z. These cells would then
   spread northeastward. 

   All modes of severe appear possible in this situation. Cellular
   activity may become supercellular with a tornado threat as the
   boundary layer shear will be increasing this evening. However,
   magnitude of storm interaction is unknown at this time, which could
   have a negative impact on tornado potential. Even so, a merging
   cluster could still result in one or more severe bows containing
   damaging wind and hail.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/28/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32779808 32519844 32139917 32070002 32160051 32490079
               32860091 33600065 34419983 34709926 34829842 34769773
               34429701 34059701 33169772 32779808 

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