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Mesoscale Discussion 356
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0356
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

   Valid 281944Z - 282145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93

   SUMMARY...The severe threat located across the central part of WW 93
   is expected to continue late this afternoon and should spread
   eastward across the remainder of the Texas Panhandle. A threat for
   large hail and wind damage will exist with the stronger
   thunderstorms with the threat affecting western Oklahoma later this
   afternoon. A potential for tornadoes may also develop in the
   southeastern part of WW 93. WW issuance may be needed across parts
   of western Oklahoma by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a line of strong
   thunderstorms extending from south to north across the central Texas
   Panhandle with another line to the east of Lubbock. This activity is
   located along the western edge of a 30 to 45 kt low-level jet which
   has increased in strength over the last few hours. This combined
   with lift associated with a band of large-scale ascent moving
   eastward across the southern high Plains should aide a gradual ramp
   up in storm intensity late this afternoon. The environment ahead of
   this convection is characterized by moderate instability, steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear (as evidenced on
   several regional WSR-88D VWPs). This should support supercell
   development especially across the southeastern part of WW 93 near a
   warm front in the vicinity of Childress and southeastward across
   northwest Texas. As cells interact with the warm front later this
   afternoon, a tornado threat and potential for isolated very large
   hail will also be possible. This threat may extend eastward into
   parts of far southwestern Oklahoma along the Red River. Further
   north across much of west-central and northwestern Oklahoma, the
   storms should remain elevated but isolated large hail and a few
   damaging wind gusts will be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 03/28/2017


   LAT...LON   36839888 36940043 36500130 35660151 34590146 33960140
               33220111 32930046 32899971 33449887 35489868 36839888 

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