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Mesoscale Discussion 357
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0357
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of nwrn Texas and adjacent southwestern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

   Valid 282231Z - 290000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for potentially damaging surface gusts appears
   likely to increase in association with an evolving mesoscale
   convective system by 7-9 pm CDT.  Tornado potential will probably
   maximize in this time frame as well, mainly in the isolated discrete
   supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development appears to be in the
   process of consolidation/growing upscale between Childress and
   Abilene, aided by forcing for ascent associated with modest
   low/mid-level warm advection beneath difluent/divergent upper flow. 
   Additional discrete storm development continues to the south and
   east of this activity, near and southwest of Abilene, in the
   presence of a moist, weakly capped boundary layer that appears
   characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg.

   Low-level hodographs still appear somewhat modest in size, but are
   expected to substantively enlarge between now and 00-02Z, with
   southerly 850 mb flow forecast to strengthen in excess of 50 kt.  As
   this occurs, and the evolving convective system and nearby
   supercells tend to develop north/northeastward, the risk for strong
   surface gusts is expected to increase across parts of northwest
   texas into southwestern Oklahoma.

   Despite some weakness in the high-level flow/length of deep layer
   hodographs, the environment still appears conducive to the risk for
   tornadoes.  This probably will remain most prominent with the
   discrete supercells, and the threat may maximize in the 00-02Z time
   frame, within areas near/between Wichita Falls and Mineral Wells Tx.

   ..Kerr.. 03/28/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34879986 35019829 34369749 32669768 32449909 33069960
               33679959 34879986 

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