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Mesoscale Discussion 765 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017
Areas affected...central and north-central OK into far southern KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 235...239...
Valid 182215Z - 182315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 235, 239 continues.
SUMMARY...A heightened tornado risk may evolve northwest of the OKC
metro---dependent on slightly less supportive storm-scale
interactions resolving in the near term.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows as cluster of tornadic supercells
over northwest OK and supercells with a history of tornadoes over
central OK near the I-40 corridor in west-central OK. The
near-storm environment is forecast to become more favorable for
strong tornadoes over the next 2 hours as backed east-southeasterly
low level flow strengthens in the inflow regions of the established
supercells. Forecast soundings show 0-1 km SRH over central and
north-central OK in the 50-75 m2/s2 range (NAM/RAP). This is in
contrast to observed KTLX VAD data showing around 150 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH with weaker SRH near KVNX. The short-term models indicate SRH
will increase and the expectation is for 0-1 km SRH to increase into
the 150-300 m2/s2 range. This will likely prove favorable for
intensifying low-level mesocyclones/increased tornado potential. As
storms move farther east, a reservoir of richer low-level moisture
is located over north-central OK (likely a partial function of
evapotranspiration due to excessive rains earlier this month). As
storms encounter the slightly higher moisture (into the upper 60s
degrees F) and strengthening low-level shear, an intense longer
track tornado may develop over central/north-central OK this
evening.
..Smith.. 05/18/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35839885 36359891 36929885 37409849 37389769 37089723
35939744 35479850 35839885
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