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Mesoscale Discussion 1090
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0945 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region
   into New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191445Z - 191715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected into and
   through the 1-4 PM EDT time frame, accompanied by a risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts.  At least a couple of severe
   weather watches appear likely within the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of lingering pre-frontal convection, insolation
   within a seasonably high moisture content boundary layer (surface
   dew points near/above 70F) is contributing to moderately large CAPE
   and weakening inhibition.  This is occurring from the lee of the
   Allegheny Mountains through much of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys
   into the mountains of northern New England, where lower/mid
   tropospheric flow is already cyclonic and modest in strength. 
   Although large-scale upstream troughing is only very slowly
   progressing eastward, weak mid-level height falls associated with
   subtle embedded perturbations may aid storm development into the
   17-20Z time frame.  

   The initiation of thunderstorms already appears underway across the
   Poconos, Catskills into and northeast of the Berkshires, and a
   gradual increase in coverage/intensification seems probable into
   early afternoon.  Eventually, in the presence of soundings that
   appear characterized by high precipitable water and 30-40 kt south
   to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow, heavy precipitation
   loading and downward momentum transfer may contribute to increasing
   potential for downbursts.  Consolidating and strengthening cold
   pools may also contribute to organizing convection accompanied by
   strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46317018 45996884 44636944 42887161 41847291 41107398
               39717604 39857746 40837723 41927614 42827488 43947365
               44767292 45287237 46317018 

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