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Mesoscale Discussion 1684
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Northwest Iowa and Far Southern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022340Z - 030215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected to continue
   developing across eastern Nebraska northeastward into northwest Iowa
   and southern Minnesota. Hail and a few strong wind gusts will be
   possible. Weather watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a front from just
   east of Hastings, Nebraska extending northeastward to near Sioux
   City, Iowa and into south-central Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms
   have developed over the last couple hours near the front. Although
   instability has increased to the southeast of the front, the
   stronger convection is located near and to the northwest of the
   front. This is keeping the thunderstorm activity elevated with
   forecast soundings showing most of the instability above 700 mb. The
   WSR-88D VWP from Omaha suggests that winds above the 700 mb level
   are strong south-southwesterly at 45 to 60 kt which is creating
   enough effective shear for a marginal severe threat. The elevated
   nature of the storms will make hail the greatest hazard although a
   few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 10/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40539750 40499845 40869863 41989727 44299455 43619355
               41259597 40539750 

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