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Mesoscale Discussion 1686
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1686
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Areas affected...Far Northeast Colorado...Far Northwest
   Kansas...Southwest and Central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030118Z - 030345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for hail will exist for a few more hours this
   evening from far northeast Colorado to central Nebraska. The severe
   threat should remain isolated and weather watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over
   southeastern Colorado with a cold front located from La Hunta,
   Colorado extending northeastward into south-central Nebraska.
   Surface winds to the northwest of the boundary are generally from
   the northeast. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
   northeastward across the central High Plains. Strong large-scale
   ascent associated with this feature is supporting thunderstorm
   development from northeast Colorado eastward into southwestern
   Nebraska. The North Platte WSR-88D VWP shows strong southwesterly
   flow in the mid-levels ranging from about 50 kt at 3 km AGL to 80 kt
   above 6 km AGL.  This amount of shear along with the strong lift
   will be favorable for an isolated severe threat over the next few
   hours. The elevated nature of the storms will make hail the primary

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 10/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39860225 39690128 40550033 41269974 41939945 42340013
               41510151 41040236 39860225 

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