Mesoscale Discussion 0022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018
Areas affected...Middle TN...central KY...southeast IN...and
southwest to northern OH
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 121351Z - 121845Z
SUMMARY...The potential for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet,
and snow will increase through the morning to early afternoon from
middle Tennessee and central Kentucky to northern Ohio. Freezing
rain rates of 0.05-0.10 inches per 3-hours will be possible into the
early afternoon, while higher rates appear to be a concern into
parts of central/north-central and northeast Ohio after 16Z.
DISCUSSION...Trends in early morning surface analyses indicated a
cold front will continue to move steadily to the east through much
of OH into eastern KY and eastern TN by 18Z. Although cooling
surface temperatures are expected to persist in the wake of the cold
front, the rate of temperature decrease should be slower, given time
of day tending to temper the decline. Despite this factor, the
delineated discussion area from middle TN, central KY, southeast IN,
and western to northern OH is likely the region that will experience
a continued transition to a wintry mix into the early afternoon.
The precipitation potential will be supported by the approach of two
shortwave troughs, one tracking east-northeast from the lower MS
Valley and the second approaching from the upper MS Valley. Forcing
for ascent attendant to these troughs will sustain precipitation
potential through the day.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37278475 35408552 35068592 35068720 35268776 35858735
36698641 37828615 39248564 41268375 41548318 41568185
41918085 41968060 41548040 40808097 40308265 39758330