Mesoscale Discussion 0303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Areas affected...Far northwest MO into south-central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011524Z - 011800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter will be
   possible into the early afternoon from far northwest Missouri into
   south-central Iowa.  Low expected coverage of a severe hail threat
   precludes the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-late morning trends in mosaic radar imagery
   indicated some increase in thunderstorm development within the
   west/southwest extent of a cluster of convection/embedded storms
   spreading to the east-northeast across northern MO into central IA. 
   12Z observed sounding analysis indicated this activity is elevated
   near and north of a warm front draped to the southeast across
   northern MO.  A weakening, though still modest, southwesterly
   low-level jet up to 45 kt is supporting low-level warm advection
   into the western extent of aforementioned MO/IA cluster of storms. 
   Ascent within the nose of this jet combined with the entrance region
   of a 55-kt 500-mb jet extending from eastern NE into the upper
   Mississippi Valley will prove favorable in supporting additional
   storms into the early afternoon, before these features weaken/depart
   this region.

   MRMS MESH data indicated a few storms with possible hail approaching
   1 inch between 1430-15Z.  Although trends have diminished since 15Z,
   colder 500-mb temperatures at the TOP 12Z sounding spreading
   northeast into the early afternoon combined with effective bulk
   shear for storm organization suggest hail could approach 1 inch
   through 18-19Z.

   ..Peters/Grams.. 05/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41609402 41909288 41659208 40509263 40019370 39979440
               40099489 40639477 41609402