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Mesoscale Discussion 304
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Areas affected...Central KS into southeast NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 011810Z - 012045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two tornado watches will be needed by mid-afternoon
   (20-21Z) across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalyses this afternoon showed an area of
   low pressure located in northwest KS, while the equatorward-trailing
   dryline was continuing to shift east through southwest KS.  DDC
   radar imagery showed this boundary located between KGCK and KDDC at
   1740Z and into central portions of the OK and TX Panhandles. 
   Clearing skies per visible satellite imagery have allowed for
   stronger surface heating across the warm sector where the
   environment continues to moisten per southerly low-level winds. 
   These changes in boundary-layer thermodynamics (reduction in
   inhibition) have allowed cumulus clouds to develop along the KS
   portion of the dryline into adjacent part of the OK Panhandle, as
   the environment further destabilizes (mixed-layer CAPE is already up
   to 2500 J/kg).  

   Deeper moist convection is expected by 20-21Z along the KS dryline
   as stronger ascent within the exit region of southwesterly mid- and
   upper-level jets shift into the central Plains this afternoon and
   evening. Trends in the operational HRRR continue to suggest storm
   development along the KS portion of the dryline by 21Z, with some
   potential for initiation by around 20Z. Further low-level moistening
   and increasing vertically veering winds will support supercell
   development with an attendant threat for all severe hazards. 
   Initial storms will be capable of producing very large hail, while a
   tornado threat (some strong) will increase, given a strengthening
   southerly low-level jet resulting in increased hodograph curvature
   this evening.

   ..Peters/Grams.. 05/01/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37349992 38149990 39429952 40089898 41169757 41449659
               41379612 40879586 40329599 39289672 38319768 37539859
               37229942 37179971 37349992 

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