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Mesoscale Discussion 307
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...Southeast
   Nebraska...Southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

   Valid 012200Z - 020000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat across southeastern Nebraska and
   north-central Kansas is expected to increase over the next couple of
   hours. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger
   storms as the activity move eastward across tornado watch 59 through
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
   southeastward across south-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas.  A
   dryline extends southward from the front across west-central Kansas.
   A narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is present ahead
   of the dryline from north-central Oklahoma into north-central Kansas
   where surface dewpoints are generally in the lower to mid 60s F.
   This combined with surface heating has resulted in moderate
   instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

   Radar imagery shows a line of semi-discrete storms ongoing along the
   western edge of moderate instability from near Hastings, NE to just
   east of Dodge City, KS. The cells within the line will continue to
   move eastward into stronger instability and should gradually
   intensify. Due to the instability, steep mid-level lapse rates of
   8.5 to 9.0 C/km and strong deep-layer shear evident on the Hastings
   WSR-88D VWP, hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
   possible with the stronger supercells. In addition, a 40 to 50 kt
   low-level jet is forecast to rapidly strengthen across central and
   eastern Kansas into southeast Nebraska early this evening. For this
   reason, low-level shear will become increasingly favorable for
   tornadoes. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to increase
   into the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range suggesting that a strong tornado or
   two will be possible as well.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   40079869 39019922 38309965 37739991 37159894 37169801
               37339705 38269635 39249613 40799471 41549476 41449676
               40079869 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2018
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