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Mesoscale Discussion 308
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Areas affected...far eastern portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into
   northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012207Z - 012330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditional threat of severe storms will exist this
   evening across far eastern portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. If
   storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible. Area being
   monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A moderately unstable airmass resides over western OK
   early this evening, where surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to low
   60s beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 deg C/km were
   present. A surface dryline was draped across the eastern OK/TX
   Panhandles, with only modest confluence along this feature due to
   somewhat veered low level flow across far western OK. A better
   defined confluence axis exists further east over west-central OK
   along the western edge of higher dewpoints, but displaced from the
   dryline and on the margins of a stronger midlevel cap per 19z RAOB
   from OUN. Given this mismatch in surface features, and stronger
   forcing for ascent focused further north across the central Plains,
   greater uncertainty in convective initiation and evolution exists
   across the MCD area. 

   Over the last 30 minutes or so, a cell has been noted on radar over
   Lipscomb County TX. Should this cell become rooted in the boundary
   layer, a severe threat will unfold as the storm tracks
   east-northeast toward Tornado Watch 59 across central KS. Any storms
   that can develop further south and track across northwest OK would
   pose a severe threat with all hazards possible given steep lapse
   rates, strong deep layer shear favoring supercells and an increasing
   low level jet this evening. Convective trends will be monitored for
   possible watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37009824 36309835 35809847 35529875 35389908 35349951
               35389990 35460021 35700035 36140042 36560034 37030026
               37059978 37009824 

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Page last modified: May 01, 2018
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