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Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018
Areas affected...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles and northwest TX into
Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...
Valid 022024Z - 022300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.
SUMMARY...Very large hail and an increasing threat for storms to
become tornadic exists across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicated ongoing
discrete storm development near and east of a dryline which extended
south through far eastern TX Panhandle from an area of low pressure
in far northwest OK. These storms will continue to track to the
east-northeast into western OK this afternoon, with additional storm
development likely in northwest TX in the southwest part of WW 62.
The CAPE/shear parameter space east of the dryline has become very
conducive for storms to mature into supercells with the potential
for tornadoes and very large hail. Special NSSL sounding at Elk
City, OK at 1827Z indicated very strong instability (surface-based
CAPE of 4000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km). In
addition to strong effective bulk shear expected to remain oriented
across the initiating boundary for discrete storms, the NSSL
sounding showed effective inflow shear of 28 kt, with low-level
hodograph curvature to support rotating updrafts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34390043 35340043 35640057 36110090 36990023 36999749
36229749 35589764 34579761 33959762 33439806 33380037
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