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Mesoscale Discussion 317
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles and northwest TX into
   western OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

   Valid 022024Z - 022300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail and an increasing threat for storms to
   become tornadic exists across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
   into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma into the early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicated ongoing
   discrete storm development near and east of a dryline which extended
   south through far eastern TX Panhandle from an area of low pressure
   in far northwest OK.  These storms will continue to track to the
   east-northeast into western OK this afternoon, with additional storm
   development likely in northwest TX in the southwest part of WW 62. 
   The CAPE/shear parameter space east of the dryline has become very
   conducive for storms to mature into supercells with the potential
   for tornadoes and very large hail.  Special NSSL sounding at Elk
   City, OK at 1827Z indicated very strong instability (surface-based
   CAPE of 4000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km).  In
   addition to strong effective bulk shear expected to remain oriented
   across the initiating boundary for discrete storms, the NSSL
   sounding showed effective inflow shear of 28 kt, with low-level
   hodograph curvature to support rotating updrafts.

   ..Peters.. 05/02/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34390043 35340043 35640057 36110090 36990023 36999749
               36229749 35589764 34579761 33959762 33439806 33380037
               33370064 34390043 

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