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Mesoscale Discussion 399
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

   Areas affected...Part of northwest TX and eastern TX Panhandle into
   western OK and adjacent southern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 132041Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 5-6 PM CDT across
   the eastern Texas Panhandle and to the north-northeast into
   northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas.  Additional storms
   may develop southward into west Texas.  Isolated large hail and
   damaging winds will be the primary severe risks.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in early-mid afternoon surface observations and
   streamline analyses showed a dryline had advanced east into the
   eastern TX Panhandle.  This boundary intersected a surface front in
   north-central and northeast TX Panhandle, with the front extending
   northeast through south-central KS, and west then northwest through
   the northwest TX Panhandle to southeast CO.  Mosaic radar imagery
   and visible satellite imagery indicated a sustained updraft in
   Roberts County TX, near the intersection of the dry line and front,
   where convergence is likely maximized.  Additional storm development
   is expected along the front into far northwest OK and adjacent
   southern KS, while some storm formation will be possible southward
   in vicinity of the dryline through west TX.  Operational HRRR
   continues to suggest this scenario for a broken band of storms to
   form by 5-6 PM in the aforementioned areas. 

   Objective analyses indicated strong surface heating has eroded the
   inhibition along and east of the dryline supporting storm
   development, as observed in Roberts County.  Effective bulk shear
   across the northern TX Panhandle area may be the strongest,
   supporting some supercell development, while elsewhere weaker shear
   should result in multicells.  Very steep lapse rates suggest hail
   and strong/damaging winds will be the primary severe risk.  A weak
   midlevel impulse glancing this region as it tracks northeast may aid
   in greater storm coverage.

   ..Peters/Grams.. 05/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33790111 35700085 37249990 38019861 37829816 37429809
               36209856 34919927 33779978 33790111 

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