Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Areas affected...Southwest KS...Western OK...Northwest TX...Eastern
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87...
Valid 140014Z - 140145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87
SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is expected with ongoing storms
this evening, though some hail/wind risk will continue in the short
DISCUSSION...At 00Z, intense thunderstorms are ongoing from
southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, generally along and east of a
northwestward-retreating surface boundary. A gradual decreasing
trend has been noted with many of cells over the past hour, and a
general decreasing trend is expected to continue into the evening as
surface-based CINH increases. However, strong instability and
sufficient effective shear will continue to support a hail/wind
threat for at least the next 1-2 hours, especially across the
eastern TX Panhandle where several cell mergers are ongoing, and
also across southwest KS in the vicinity of the surface boundary.
Isolated instances of very large hail remain possible in the short
term given the magnitude of instability.
Later tonight, an increasing low-level jet will support development
of elevated convection to the north of the surface boundary. Some
hail risk may accompany this activity, though any such risk would
likely remain north of areas currently in WW 87.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33450151 35910113 38090012 38529960 38589859 37409857
35889882 34599937 34149961 33589965 33450023 33450151