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Mesoscale Discussion 404
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0404
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

   Areas affected...Southwest KS...Western OK...Northwest TX...Eastern
   TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87...

   Valid 140014Z - 140145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is expected with ongoing storms
   this evening, though some hail/wind risk will continue in the short
   term.

   DISCUSSION...At 00Z, intense thunderstorms are ongoing from
   southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, generally along and east of a
   northwestward-retreating surface boundary. A gradual decreasing
   trend has been noted with many of cells over the past hour, and a
   general decreasing trend is expected to continue into the evening as
   surface-based CINH increases. However, strong instability and
   sufficient effective shear will continue to support a hail/wind
   threat for at least the next 1-2 hours, especially across the
   eastern TX Panhandle where several cell mergers are ongoing, and
   also across southwest KS in the vicinity of the surface boundary.
   Isolated instances of very large hail remain possible in the short
   term given the magnitude of instability. 

   Later tonight, an increasing low-level jet will support development
   of elevated convection to the north of the surface boundary. Some
   hail risk may accompany this activity, though any such risk would
   likely remain north of areas currently in WW 87.

   ..Dean.. 05/14/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33450151 35910113 38090012 38529960 38589859 37409857
               35889882 34599937 34149961 33589965 33450023 33450151 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2018
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