Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018
Areas affected...Much of Kansas...far eastern Colorado...and far
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105...106...
Valid 190414Z - 190500Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAMMATICAL ERROR
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105, 106
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WWs 105 and 106,
although this threat appears to be on the wane. Isolated instances
of severe wind and hail remain possible through at least 04Z across
western Kansas, and 05Z across central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...The overall severe threat has diminished some across
WWs 105 and 106 over the past hour or so due to a couple of
influences: 1) nocturnal boundary layer stabilization, and 2)
widespread convective overturning. Nevertheless, one persistent
linear segment continues across northwestern Kansas currently and
will have a threat for damaging wind gusts for the next hour or so.
Given ongoing stabilization, portions of WW 105 in effect for these
areas may be allowed to expire at its originally scheduled time
Farther south, isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped from
southwest Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle. Although
low-level stabilization has occurred across these areas, steep
mid-level lapse rates will continue to sustain elevated storms and a
few instances of large hail may still occur.
Farther east, an extensive line of storms extending from near
Russell to just west of Wichita continued to propagate eastward into
a weakly to moderately unstable airmass (MUCAPE values between
1000-2000 J/kg). An isolated damaging wind threat should continue
through the originally scheduled expiration time of WW 106 (07Z),
and some hail threat will exist with more cellular convection
developing on the southern flank of this linear MCS across far
southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36930025 37030055 37480105 37960184 38500190 39000209
39270222 39780228 40090192 40260133 40320037 40359944
40309894 39979841 39379783 38819729 38299691 37839679
37449672 37099696 36939745 36849827 36859913 36930025