Mesoscale Discussion 0460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

   Areas affected...southern Missouri through southwest Kentucky and
   northwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191656Z - 191900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms might continue to pose a risk for large hail
   and a few damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri into
   northwest Tennessee and extreme western Kentucky through mid
   afternoon. The need for a WW is uncertain at this time, but will
   ultimately depend on short-term convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue developing over southern MO
   within zone of modest isentropic ascent north of a quasistationary
   front that extends across southern MO into northwest TN. The
   atmosphere in vicinity of the front is moderately unstable with 2600
   J/kg MUCAPE indicated on the 12Z Springfield MO RAOB. Influx of
   higher theta-e air from the destabilizing warm sector may support
   further development and intensification of storms along and just
   north of the stationary front, at least through mid afternoon. A
   limiting factor will be tendency for a shortwave ridge aloft to
   gradually build, resulting in weakening mid-level winds. However, in
   the meantime, springfield VWP data show 30-50 kt westerly flow
   between 3 and 6 km (near perpendicular to the evolving line segment
   over southwest MO). This in conjunction with a favorable
   thermodynamic environment may promote the threat for isolated large
   hail and damaging wind gusts as storms develop and move along and
   just north of the stationary front next few hours.

   ..Dial/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36018928 36529131 36889259 37379326 37919258 37499077
               36698896 36018928