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Mesoscale Discussion 462
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

   Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191805Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage throughout the
   afternoon, with damaging winds and hail expected. A watch is likely
   to be needed by 19-20Z.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
   central KS into the TX Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary front from
   northwest TX into northern OK. Recently, an extensive midlevel band
   of convection has formed which is hampering heating in parts of
   western OK. However, strong heating continues just south of these
   convective elements with temperatures approaching 90 F. Dewpoints
   will likely continue to mix from the lowers 60s F into the upper 50s
   F, but surface to midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and severe
   storms are likely. It is possible that some of the midlevel cores
   eventually become surface based, and/or the differential heating
   zone on the southern fringe of the cloud canopy provides a focus.
   Nevertheless, models are adamant of extensive storm coverage by late
   afternoon. Strong to severe outflow, as well as hail will be

   ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33500144 33820167 34470114 35679959 35889890 36049813
               35799788 35349789 34559835 33829879 33479933 33360035

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