Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191842Z - 192115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form by 20-21Z, and a watch
may be needed for hail, wind, and a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently progressing across central
KS, while a leading wind shift dissipates along a MHK to HUT line.
Visible imagery shows widespread heating now, in the wake of the
earlier convection with cirrus finally existing northeast KS. As a
result, temperatures are steadily rising through the mid to upper
70s F, with expanding CU fields.
Boundary layer moisture quality is questionable given the previous
overturning of the air mass, however, lapse rates aloft are quite
steep, and will support severe storms. Weak low-level flow beneath
50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow is resulting in primarily
straightline hodographs. However, any backing or strengthening of
the low-level flow due to pressure falls could easily support
Storms may initiate near the cold front around SLN/CNK, and perhaps
along the stationary front to the north, initially cellular and
possibly evolving into an MCS as they approach northwest MO into
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38619778 39209780 39689756 40029696 40209640 40469537
40439479 40029432 39209429 38949490 38339713 38619778