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Mesoscale Discussion 463
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0463
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far
   southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191842Z - 192115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form by 20-21Z, and a watch
   may be needed for hail, wind, and a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently progressing across central
   KS, while a leading wind shift dissipates along a MHK to HUT line.
   Visible imagery shows widespread heating now, in the wake of the
   earlier convection with cirrus finally existing northeast KS. As a
   result, temperatures are steadily rising through the mid to upper
   70s F, with expanding CU fields.

   Boundary layer moisture quality is questionable given the previous
   overturning of the air mass, however, lapse rates aloft are quite
   steep, and will support severe storms. Weak low-level flow beneath
   50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow is resulting in primarily
   straightline hodographs. However, any backing or strengthening of
   the low-level flow due to pressure falls could easily support
   supercells.

   Storms may initiate near the cold front around SLN/CNK, and perhaps
   along the stationary front to the north, initially cellular and
   possibly evolving into an MCS as they approach northwest MO into
   southern IA.

   ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38619778 39209780 39689756 40029696 40209640 40469537
               40439479 40029432 39209429 38949490 38339713 38619778 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2018
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