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Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western North
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...
Valid 252341Z - 260045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121
SUMMARY...Threat for hail and strong wind gusts persists across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121.
DISCUSSION...One-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and recent surface
observation reveal numerous surface boundaries across the eastern TX
Panhandle and western north TX. The most well-defined boundary is
the wavy dryline extending southwestward from a low near PPA. An
outflow boundary extends from central TX northwestward into western
north TX and perhaps far southwest OK. Ongoing storm near CDS may
begin to interact with this outflow boundary soon. Some updraft
intensification is possible with any initial interaction.
Thereafter, continued forward propagation along the boundary is then
possible. Some low-level stabilization has occurred downstream in
western north TX and north-central TX so there is some question as
to how long the ongoing storm complex will be able to maintain its
Farther north, several unsuccessful attempts at convective
initiation were made across Hemphill county before the current storm
over the county developed. Downstream airmass appears favorable for
storm persistence, particularly if the storm progresses
southeastward into the more buoyant air in western OK. More
favorable low-level flow also exist across western OK where current
surface observations show southeasterly winds around 15 kt. If this
storm is able to maintain strength and track southeastward, all
severe hazards, including a tornado, are possible. However, given
the history of failed initiation in the area and modest convective
inhibition still remaining, some uncertainty exists regarding
whether or not the storm will be able to realize the favorable
environment farther east.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35160111 36440061 36759991 36829913 36439859 34559785
33499785 33299887 33330007 33830103 34530116 35160111
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