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Mesoscale Discussion 524
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MD 524 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western North
   Texas...Western OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...

   Valid 252341Z - 260045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121

   SUMMARY...Threat for hail and strong wind gusts persists across
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121.

   DISCUSSION...One-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and recent surface
   observation reveal numerous surface boundaries across the eastern TX
   Panhandle and western north TX. The most well-defined boundary is
   the wavy dryline extending southwestward from a low near PPA. An
   outflow boundary extends from central TX northwestward into western
   north TX and perhaps far southwest OK. Ongoing storm near CDS may
   begin to interact with this outflow boundary soon. Some updraft
   intensification is possible with any initial interaction.
   Thereafter, continued forward propagation along the boundary is then
   possible. Some low-level stabilization has occurred downstream in
   western north TX and north-central TX so there is some question as
   to how long the ongoing storm complex will be able to maintain its
   current intensity.

   Farther north, several unsuccessful attempts at convective
   initiation were made across Hemphill county before the current storm
   over the county developed. Downstream airmass appears favorable for
   storm persistence, particularly if the storm progresses
   southeastward into the more buoyant air in western OK. More
   favorable low-level flow also exist across western OK where current
   surface observations show southeasterly winds around 15 kt. If this
   storm is able to maintain strength and track southeastward, all
   severe hazards, including a tornado, are possible. However, given
   the history of failed initiation in the area and modest convective
   inhibition still remaining, some uncertainty exists regarding
   whether or not the storm will be able to realize the favorable
   environment farther east.

   ..Mosier.. 05/25/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35160111 36440061 36759991 36829913 36439859 34559785
               33499785 33299887 33330007 33830103 34530116 35160111 

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