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Mesoscale Discussion 559
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0559
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of southwestern KS into the TX/OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...

   Valid 282310Z - 290045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129

   SUMMARY...An ongoing large hail and damaging wind threat should
   transition to mainly damaging winds over the next couple of hours
   across WW 129.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent ahead of a modest mid/upper-level jet has
   encouraged scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a surface
   dryline this afternoon across parts of southwestern KS into the
   TX/OK Panhandles. A well-mixed boundary layer suggested by large
   surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-35F across this region
   will encourage accelerating downdrafts with an associated damaging
   wind threat with ongoing convection. Large hail will also be a
   concern with semi-discrete thunderstorms given steep mid-level lapse
   rates and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear supporting updraft
   organization. Several instances of 1-1.75 inch hail have recently
   been reported on the TX Panhandle and southwestern KS. Continued
   storm mergers/interactions and a modestly strengthening
   southeasterly LLJ over the next couple of hours will probably result
   in a consolidation of thunderstorms into a line with mainly a
   damaging wind threat continuing through this evening.

   ..Gleason.. 05/28/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35710260 37030201 38210156 38209889 37459907 37010007
               35650010 34770110 34800230 35710260 

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