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Mesoscale Discussion 565
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0565
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

   Areas affected...Southwestern/South-central
   Kansas...northwestern/north-central Oklahoma...and portions of the
   Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 291855Z - 292000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
   convection increases in intensity and coverage across the discussion
   area this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Objective analyses and satellite indicate an
   increasingly unstable airmass along and south of a remnant outflow
   boundary left behind from earlier convection very near the
   Kansas/Oklahoma border area.  The pre-convective environment was
   weakly capped and characterized by strong instability (2000-3000
   J/kg MUCAPE) and deep shear values around 40-50 kt, favoring
   organization.  A few convective attempts have already been noted
   along the outflow about 50 miles south of Dodge City, and as storms
   continue to develop in this corridor and interact with the remnant
   outflow, all modes of severe will become increasingly likely,
   including a few tornadoes and very large (2"+) hail.

   Given the aforementioned convective trends, a Tornado Watch will
   likely be needed shortly.

   ..Cook/Squitieri/Hart.. 05/29/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35930112 36400139 36940145 37300120 37760038 38029928
               38149827 38119762 37399706 36599697 35779739 35539863
               35600003 35930112 

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