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Mesoscale Discussion 565 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018
Areas affected...Southwestern/South-central
Kansas...northwestern/north-central Oklahoma...and portions of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 291855Z - 292000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
convection increases in intensity and coverage across the discussion
area this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Objective analyses and satellite indicate an
increasingly unstable airmass along and south of a remnant outflow
boundary left behind from earlier convection very near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border area. The pre-convective environment was
weakly capped and characterized by strong instability (2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE) and deep shear values around 40-50 kt, favoring
organization. A few convective attempts have already been noted
along the outflow about 50 miles south of Dodge City, and as storms
continue to develop in this corridor and interact with the remnant
outflow, all modes of severe will become increasingly likely,
including a few tornadoes and very large (2"+) hail.
Given the aforementioned convective trends, a Tornado Watch will
likely be needed shortly.
..Cook/Squitieri/Hart.. 05/29/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35930112 36400139 36940145 37300120 37760038 38029928
38149827 38119762 37399706 36599697 35779739 35539863
35600003 35930112
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