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Mesoscale Discussion 574
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0574
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 133...

   Valid 300358Z - 300530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 133

   SUMMARY...Potential for isolated severe gusts and a few instances of
   large hail continues across Watch 133.

   DISCUSSION...Two distinct clusters of convective activity are
   ongoing late this evening. The first is primarily anchored by a
   semi-discrete HP supercell over Kiowa Co. KFDR VWP data indicate a
   wind profile favorable for continued rotation, such that
   southeastward motion may persist with this cell. Indeed, mid-level
   KFDR data periodically highlight robust updraft features, such as a
   stout ZDR column and BWER. In turn, a threat for isolated large hail
   and severe wind gusts may persist for perhaps another hour or so
   near the southern edge of Watch 133. Over time, convective
   inhibition should become too great for maintenance of the severe
   threat, though.

   Farther north, a collection of embedded supercells and small linear
   segments is making steady eastward progress over northern Oklahoma
   and southern Kansas. A recent uptick in linear structure has been
   noted over southeastern Kansas, and these cells will pose a
   localized threat for damaging winds, before the low-level
   thermodynamic environment becomes too hostile to maintain this
   threat (generally towards the KS/MO border). To the south,
   convection also appears to be organizing into mainly
   outflow-dominant cells. A residual boundary layer (characterized by
   dry air just above a thin, cooling surface layer) will likely
   maintain some damaging wind threat over the next few hours. However,
   the threat should diminish late tonight, as the low-level jet veers
   and cells move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment
   farther east.

   ..Picca.. 05/30/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34899912 36629820 37969614 38089543 37979501 37629474
               37189479 36389542 35779595 35499636 35029704 34649756
               34189772 34259834 34519896 34899912 

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