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Mesoscale Discussion 673
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0673
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

   Areas affected...Southwest/south central South Dakota into north
   central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082202Z - 082330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A continuing increase in thunderstorm coverage and
   intensity seems likely through the 6-8 PM MDT time frame,
   accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind.  An additional
   severe weather watch probably will be issued within the next hour or
   so.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorms initiating south of Philip SD
   appear to be doing so within a zone of enhanced lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, roughly centered near the central
   Nebraska/South Dakota border area.  This field is generally on the
   northeastern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated
   mixed-layer, and may provide the focus for increasing storm
   development into the evening hours.

   Thermodynamic profiles across the region are characterized by steep
   mid-level lapse rates and moderate to large CAPE, supportive of
   intense updrafts, more than capable of producing severe hail, and
   the potential for strong downbursts and surface cold pool
   development.  Deep layer mean flow is rather modest (southwesterly
   on the order of 20 kt), but veering of winds with height appear to
   be contributing to vertical shear at least marginally sufficient for
   organizing convective development.

   Into the the 00-02Z time frame, consolidating/upscale growing
   convection with merging cold pools appears possible, which may
   eventually evolve into an organized mesoscale convective system with
   more widespread strong surface gusts.  If/when this occurs, the
   tendency should be for activity to propagate southeastward.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/08/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44090246 44380136 43920011 43139913 42230008 42340151
               42670267 42930299 43430296 44090246 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2018
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