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Mesoscale Discussion 682
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

   Areas affected...Far southern MN...North-central/northeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 091846Z - 092045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase over the next
   hour or two. Supercells capable of all hazards are possible and a
   watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV from the overnight MCS that moved across NE
   is currently centered over south-central MN. Attendant surface low
   is displaced just east of the mid-level MCV with an effective cold
   front/surface trough extending southwestward to south of OMA.
   Additionally, a warm frontal zone extends eastward near the MN/IA
   and then southeastward through southwest WI. 

   Discrete storm across Mitchell and Howard counties in northeast IA
   has recently shown deviant right motion and persistent storm
   strength, suggesting a well-organized updraft. Mesoanalysis
   estimates convective inhibition remains over the current downstream
   airmass. However, recent RAP soundings modified for current
   conditions suggest only minor amounts of convective inhibition
   remains in place. Continued filtered heating in the presence of this
   very moist and steep lapse rate environment will result in further
   destabilization and a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. 

   As surface convergence continues, thunderstorm coverage is expected
   to increase. Favorable vertical shear profiles featuring
   southeasterly surface winds beneath moderate westerly/southwesterly
   flow aloft will support updraft organization and the development of
   supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
   Additionally, backed surface winds will result in favorable
   low-level shear and the potential for a few tornadoes. A watch will
   be needed to cover these hazards.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/09/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43209418 43789400 43859237 43379157 42559201 42609306
               42859396 43209418 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2018
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