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Mesoscale Discussion 691 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018
Areas affected...parts of eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...and
northwest Illinois
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...
Valid 100444Z - 100645Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
continues.
SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging winds, and some potential for hail
up to an inch in diameter, continues in/near WW 167.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increasingly
organized/bowing band of storms crossing east-central Iowa at this
time, which continues moving east-southeastward. While the greatest
instability remains to the southwest of the ongoing cluster (hence
the tendency for backbuilding updraft development), a secondary axis
of mixed-layer CAPE near or below 1000 J/kg extends southeastward
along the warm frontal zone -- roughly demarcated by a developing
band of convection extending from the main/bowing band of storms
into north central Illinois.
Expect the MCS to continue advancing east-southeast over the next
couple of hours, fueled by the aforementioned instability axis, and
aided with respect to organization by enhanced (35-45 kt) flow
centered near the 700 mb layer per area VWPs. With surface
dewpoints near 70 along the boundary, suggestive of only a rather
weakly stable boundary layer, potential for gusty/locally damaging
winds persists, and should linger for at least another couple of
hours.
..Goss.. 06/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41719294 42089209 42259123 43119054 42448881 41438876
41108907 41159064 41459234 41719294
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