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Mesoscale Discussion 837
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0837
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

   Areas affected...southeast and eastern VA...DelMarVa...northeast
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231738Z - 231845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An organized thunderstorm risk, yielding weak supercells
   and multicells, will likely be capable of isolated to widely
   scattered 45-60 mph gusts this afternoon.  Localized wind damage is
   the primary hazard.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
   upper OH Valley/central Appalachians pivoting eastward towards the
   Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening.  Visible imagery shows a
   swelling cumulus field across the coastal plain of VA into the
   greater Raleigh, NC metro.  Surface analysis shows temperatures
   warming to the 88-92 degree F range within a very moist airmass (12Z
   MHX RAOB 18.3 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio).  Although
   700-500 lapse rates are weak (at or below 5.4 degrees C/km per 12Z
   regional RAOBs), strengthening southwesterly flow with height (45-50
   kt at 500mb per KAKQ VAD data) results in 40 kt 0-6 km shear
   supportive of a weak supercell/organized multicell mode.  Damaging
   winds will likely be the primary hazard with gusts in the 45-60 mph

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36057857 38237724 38957517 38487488 35827563 35607628
               35547766 36057857 

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