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Mesoscale Discussion 839
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the southern/central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231936Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms could pose a risk for large hail
   and damaging winds into this evening. Watch issuance could be

   DISCUSSION...A few strong/severe storms have developed near the
   Palmer Divide eastward into northwest Kansas this afternoon, amidst
   an environment characterized by favorable effective shear, but
   modest boundary-layer moisture (e.g., upper 40s/lower 50s dew
   points). Still, sufficient mixed-layer buoyancy exists for isolated
   multicells/splitting supercells, capable of large hail and damaging
   winds. If a few cells continue to organize and evolve southeastward
   into improved storm-relative flow and higher dew points, an
   increasing severe threat would likely evolve, perhaps in the form of
   a small convective complex. As such, convective trends are being
   monitored for possible watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37380089 36610234 36490345 36810384 37220401 37960403
               38610412 39390414 39510396 39630343 39660210 39520114
               39030067 38040046 37380089 

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