|Mesoscale Discussion 849|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
Areas affected...Southwest and south-central KS...north-central and
northwest OK...and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...207...
Valid 240232Z - 240430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206, 207
SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be coordinated soon
for parts of southwest and south-central Kansas, north-central and
northwest Oklahoma, and into parts of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary
severe-weather hazard through the late evening and the overnight.
DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across southwest KS indicated a
recent increase in forward speed (35-40 kt) of the southwest portion
of the line of storms across this region in the KS counties of
Hamilton and Kearny. Surface observations indicated temperatures in
the wake of the storms were in the 50s and 60s, while downstream
readings were in the upper 70s and 80s. The cold pool development
and the increase in storm motion is likely indicating the impending
scenario developing for tonight of a forward-propagating MCS to
track southeast into the southern Plains producing damaging winds.
The presence of a nearly untapped very unstable downstream
environment (MUCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) across the discussion area, with
a strengthening southerly low-level jet at 40-50 kt from west TX
into southwest KS through early overnight, veering later tonight
toward daybreak Sunday.
Southern parts of WW 207 may be extended in time beyond the 03Z
expiration as ongoing and any new storms will continue to pose a
severe threat, given the presence of moderately strong instability
and effective bulk shear of 45 kt.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38010204 38060144 38440086 38740057 38749945 38639830
38019729 37069681 35949670 35639676 35499791 35469911
35469989 35680062 36150137 36710161 37090188 38010204
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