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Mesoscale Discussion 898
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0898
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270030Z - 270230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms have formed along an east/west surface boundary
   stretching across central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
   Hail/strong wind gusts are the main threats, but brief tornadoes are

   DISCUSSION...The atmosphere has destabilized across portions of
   Kansas/Missouri during the last few hours in the wake of a MCS.
   Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and shear
   (effective bulk shear of 35-55 knots) indicate a conducive
   environment for strong/severe storm development. Farther to the
   west, the storms are most likely surface-based and interacting with
   a remnant outflow boundary, which is where brief tornadoes are
   possible across Butler/Elk/Greenwood counties. Severe hail/wind are
   also possible with these storms as they slowly build/track to the
   south/southeast. Storms should diminish after sunset. However, there
   is a possibility of upscale organization that would let storms
   continue through the evening. If this occurs, a watch may be needed.

   ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38539758 38619584 38559386 37449384 36819381 36829587
               36919729 37109768 38179768 38539758 

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