Mesoscale Discussion 0006
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 AM CST Thu Jan 03 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the eastern TX Panhandle into western
   north TX...and western/central/eastern OK

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 031106Z - 031600Z

   SUMMARY...A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will
   continue through mid-morning (16Z/10 AM CST).

   DISCUSSION...A swath of precipitation is ongoing this morning across
   western north TX into western/central OK associated with large-scale
   ascent ahead of an upper low over the southern High Plains. Much of
   this precipitation is occurring where surface temperatures are
   at/below freezing, and multiple observation sites across
   western/central OK have been reporting freezing rain as the
   predominant precipitation type for the past several hours. Lowered
   dual-pol CC from area radars suggest that sleet is very likely
   mixing with freezing rain from the vicinity of Wichita Falls, TX
   northeastward to Lawton and Chickasha, OK as of 11Z. Slightly cooler
   temperatures around 850 mb (around 0 to +2C) across this region per
   RAP mesoanalysis estimates should continue to support a mix of sleet
   and freezing rain in the short term. A gradual transition to mainly
   snow should occur from west to east through mid-morning (16Z/10 AM
   CST) across parts of the TX Panhandle, western north TX, and
   western/central OK as the residual warm nose centered around 850 mb
   erodes and the low levels cool below freezing with the eastward
   movement of the upper low. Some potential for moderate to locally
   heavy snow, with rates possibly up to 1 inch per hour, may
   materialize over parts of southwestern into west-central OK and
   adjacent portions of western north TX.

   Farther east into central/eastern OK, this transition from freezing
   rain/sleet will probably be slower to occur given the closed nature
   of the upper low and its expected limited eastward movement this
   morning. An area of mainly freezing rain could persist for at least
   several more hours from the OKC metro area northeastward along the
   I-44 corridor towards Tulsa, where short-term guidance indicates the
   +2 to 4C 850 mb warm nose will remain in place. Freezing rain rates
   of 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3 hours may occur, although surface
   temperatures near freezing (30-32F) and weak winds should limit
   substantial ice accretion to mainly elevated surfaces. The greatest
   uncertainty in dominant precipitation type unfortunately resides
   over the OKC metro area, where a narrow west-to-east transition from
   all snow to nearly all freezing rain may exist this morning.

   ..Gleason.. 01/03/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32879970 33370051 33660084 33840098 34640083 35100068
               35550045 35779999 36099865 36209772 36329676 36279614
               36159571 35749568 35379584 34699682 34429707 33859761
               33039857 32859906 32879970