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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

   Areas affected...Much of western Oklahoma and portions of central
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112112Z - 112345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will move across the area this evening
   and pose a threat for severe hail for a few hours.  However, the
   threat should remain isolated and short-lived enough to preclude a
   Watch.

   DISCUSSION...An area of surface low pressure over the Oklahoma and
   Texas panhandles is expected to consolidate and swing south and east
   over the area this afternoon and evening.  Very strong forcing for
   ascent associated with a strong, compact vorticity maximum and the
   left-exit region of a mid-upper level jet has already contributed to
   thunderstorm development in the deeply-mixed, relatively dry air
   mass over the Texas panhandle.  

   Farther east, although extensive multi-layer clouds have limited
   boundary-layer temperatures to the low-mid 50s, very cold mid-level
   temperatures overspreading the area and boundary-layer dewpoints in
   the upper 40s to lower 50s will allow for 250-750 J/kg of
   surface-based CAPE to develop in the next few hours.  As the strong
   lift reaches western Oklahoma by about 22z, deeper convection with
   some organization is expected to develop and persist for a few hours
   in the 50-60 kt deep-layer shear, as supported by multiple HRRR
   runs.  The steep lapse rates could support severe hail, especially
   in cells that show more persistent rotation. The strong dynamic lift
   may aid in the persistence of the thunderstorms into mid-evening
   into eastern Oklahoma, but the severe threat should diminish by then
   given the decreasing buoyancy from the deeper low-level stable layer
   over that area.  Given the isolated and relatively short-lived
   nature of the threat, a severe thunderstorm Watch is not
   anticipated.

   ..Coniglio/Hart.. 02/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36139991 36489986 36839947 36949850 36479796 35709773
               35289775 34809817 34479856 34289946 34419979 34769989
               35529990 36139991 

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Page last modified: February 11, 2019
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