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Mesoscale Discussion 253
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0253
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas into western

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 032009Z - 032215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts appear
   possible with intensifying thunderstorm development across the
   northern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon.  Stronger storm
   development, including the risk for an isolated supercell or two,
   still appears possible near the Childress vicinity, but perhaps not
   until closer to 7 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Although the mid-level cold core of a short wave
   impulse crossing the southern Rockies still lags to the west of the
   High Plains, lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates have become very
   steep to the north of a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak which is forecast
   to gradually propagate across the Texas South Plains, toward the Red
   River Valley through early this evening.  Beneath this regime, deep
   boundary layer mixing continues, with enough instability to support
   increasing high-based thunderstorm development across northeastern
   New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.  This is to the west of an
   increasingly better defined dryline now evolving across the Texas
   Panhandle, southward into the Texas Big Bend region.  To the
   north/east of the dryline, large-scale ascent, generally associated
   with warm advection has supported persistent weak mid-level
   convective development, with increasing cloud cover inhibiting
   boundary layer heating and destabilization across the eastern Texas
   Panhandle into western Oklahoma.

   Near and just ahead of the dryline, boundary layer moisture
   (characterized by surface dew points increasing into the lower 50s)
   appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 500
   J/kg, with some further increase possible through late afternoon
   with additional insolation.  It appears possible that high-based
   storms encountering this environment, near/north of the Interstate
   40 corridor of the Texas Panhandle, could intensify during the next
   few hours, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and

   Southeast of Amarillo/east of Lubbock into the Childress area, it
   appears that capping associated with warmer elevated mixed-layer air
   may tend to inhibit the initiation of storms.  However, most model
   output remains suggestive that isolated storm development may occur
   closer to the 23-00Z time frame, when forcing for ascent will become
   enhanced by a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet.  If/when this
   occurs, the environment across this region appears most conducive to
   severe storm development, with a sustained supercell or two

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/03/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35780170 36130084 35309969 34299914 33609943 33510015
               34000043 34680075 35780170 

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