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Mesoscale Discussion 322
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into southwest/west central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131753Z - 132000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate across
   the region through the afternoon.  Some of these may be accompanied
   by a risk for severe hail through mid afternoon, before the
   potential for tornadoes increases closer to 3-4 PM CDT, when the
   issuance of a watch currently appears most likely.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development, largely supported by
   strengthening low-level warm advection above/to the cool side of a
   northward advancing surface front, is now underway as far east as
   the Monroe LA vicinity, where a 4-5 mb 2 hour surface pressure fall
   maximum has spread within the last hour.  In the presence of
   moderately large CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear, this
   activity may continue to pose a severe hail risk through mid

   Gradually, as the front progresses northward, it appears that a
   warming and moistening boundary layer (including surface dew points
   increasing to near 70f) may become supportive of intensifying
   boundary-layer based storm development closer to the 21-22Z time. 
   Models suggest that this will also coincide with enlarging low-level
   hodographs beneath an 850 mb jet strengthening to 50+ kt, which is
   expected to support increasing potential for tornadoes, a few of
   which may become strong.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/13/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33139141 33538979 32798943 32468946 31789007 31649080
               31679147 32579188 33139141 

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