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Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas...western and northern
Louisiana...western Mississippi and southeast Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...54...
Valid 132039Z - 132215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53, 54 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe weather potential continues to gradually ramp up.
This appears likely to include a few supercells with increasing
potential for a strong tornadoes through 5-6 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Gust front continues to advance eastward around 40 kt,
into the Sabine Valley and upper Texas coast, accompanied by a
narrow broken line of intense convective development. This activity
is preceded by scattered discrete storm development, and an evolving
cluster of storms centered around the Monroe LA area.
It appears that severe weather potential, including potentially
damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes, will maximize in a
corridor near/north of Natchitoches through the Monroe LA area
between now and 22-23Z.
20Z surface observations indicate that rapid strong 2-hour surface
pressure falls have become focused across the Monroe LA into
Greenville/Vicksburg MS vicinity, where further boundary layer
destabilization associated with warming and moistening may support
intensifying boundary-layer based thunderstorm development during
the next few hours. Beneath a 50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs will support increasing
potential for tornadoes. A couple could be strong.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33459126 33229052 32649022 32089022 31489038 31329109
31109189 30109288 29829381 29719466 30629369 31619338
32279361 32859386 33039274 33479135 33459126
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