Mesoscale Discussion 0327
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Western and Central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132204Z - 140030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across eastern
   Mississippi and western to central Alabama. Marginally severe wind
   gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be the primary threats.
   Weather watch issuance could be necessary across the region over the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of
   thunderstorms developing across west-central Alabama. This
   convection is located along the northeastern edge of moderate
   instability. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE values across west-central
   Alabama in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the
   instability, deep-layer shear is strong with the Birmingham WSR-88D
   VWP showing about 60 kt of 0-6 km shear. The VWP also shows
   gradually veering winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL with 0-3
   Km storm relative helicity near 350 m2/s2. Discrete cells that
   develop in this environment may have an isolated tornado threat.
   Wind damage will also be possible with rotating storms. The threat
   should remain isolated this afternoon but should increase as a
   organized convective line approaches from the west early this
   evening.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31998643 31848748 31978860 32238925 32528950 32878950
               33308932 33538876 33678779 33668641 33138593 32568597
               31998643