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Mesoscale Discussion 368 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Areas affected...north central Texas through extreme southern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172030Z - 172230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for development of supercells
by 22Z over north central TX. Very large hail appears to be the main
threat, but isolated damaging wind and a tornado are also possible.
DISCUSSION...The dryline continues to mix eastward into western
portion of north central TX this afternoon. Diabatic warming within
the downstream warm sector, steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates
and dewpoints in the low 60s F have contributed to a corridor of
moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Water vapor imagery
shows a zone of mid-upper level drying/subsidence spreading into
north central TX in wake of a leading shortwave trough. The
subsidence and a remnant capping inversion within base of the
elevated mixed layer (sampled by the 18Z Fort Worth RAOB) lends
uncertainty to the timing extent of thunderstorm initiation this
afternoon. However, it remains possible that at least a couple of
storms might initiate along the dryline where strong convergence and
deep mixing through the inversion layer exists. Should the storms
develop, effective bulk shear from 45-50 kt would support supercells
with very large hail the main threat. Low-level shear and size of
0-1 km hodographs will remain relatively modest which should limit
overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
..Dial/Grams.. 04/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34519727 34079675 32669706 32299817 32869823 33449825
34189803 34519727
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