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Mesoscale Discussion 399
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Areas affected...Lee of the Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191406Z - 191530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to increase in the lee of the
   Appalachians through late morning. Tornado watches will be issued
   soon to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of strong large-scale forcing for ascent
   is quickly spreading across GA/FL Panhandle ahead of a pronounced
   short-wave trough. Convection is responding to this forcing and is
   expected to grow upscale in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians...likely in the form of an organized squall line;
   although, a few discrete pre-frontal supercells are possible. This
   squall line should progress northeast during the day.

   Farther north into southern VA, several sustained supercells have
   evolved within a warm advection zone. This activity should advance
   north this morning as LLJ strengthens across the southern Middle
   Atlantic. Tornado threat should be greatest with isolated
   convection, but remains possible within more organized line

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33038401 34628284 36378115 37308006 36827895 35378018
               33538164 32088306 33038401 

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